The head of the UK’s largest insurer has warned that England is “for sure” building homes today that will eventually be impossible to insure due to rising flood risks. Dame Amanda Blanc, chief executive of Aviva, cautioned that the current drive to meet housebuilding targets is resulting in new properties being constructed in areas vulnerable to extreme weather.
According to Aviva’s data, an estimated 6.3 million UK homes are currently at risk of flooding. This figure is projected to rise to 8 million by 2050 as climate patterns shift. Dame Amanda highlighted that between 2022 and 2024, one in nine new homes in England were built in medium or high flood-risk areas.
The 2039 ‘Flood Re’ Deadline
A critical factor for homeowners and buyers is the future of the Flood Re insurance scheme. Established as a joint initiative between the government and insurers, Flood Re provides a subsidy that keeps home insurance affordable for those in high-risk zones.
However, the scheme is a temporary measure scheduled to end in 2039. After this date, the market is expected to transition to “risk-reflective pricing,” meaning premiums will be based on the actual likelihood of a property flooding without government-backed support. For many homes currently protected by the subsidy, this shift could make insurance prohibitively expensive or entirely unavailable.
The 2039 expiry poses a particular challenge for those taking out 25-year mortgages today, as the protection may vanish before the loan is fully repaid. Most UK residential lenders require valid buildings insurance as a standard condition of a mortgage; if a property becomes uninsurable, it can become nearly impossible to sell or remortgage.
Planning and Government Response
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) has previously defended its planning record, claiming that 99% of proposed new homes in planning applications complied with Environment Agency advice during the 2024/25 period.
The regulatory landscape was updated as recently as 17 August 2026, when a revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was implemented. Chapter 18 of this framework specifically addresses managing flood risk and coastal change, aiming to ensure that development is steered away from the highest-risk areas where possible.
Despite these safeguards, Dame Amanda argued that the sheer volume of homes required to meet national demand is placing pressure on local authorities to approve developments in areas that may not remain viable in the long term.
Homeowners concerned about the vulnerability of their property can check long-term flood risks via the official GOV.UK service, which incorporates updated maps from the Environment Agency.