The full New State Pension is on course to exceed £13,000 a year for the first time next April, following the release of official wage growth figures that will trigger a significant increase under the “triple lock” guarantee.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 15 September 2026 shows that total wage growth for the May to July period stood at 3.9%. Under the government’s triple lock mechanism, the State Pension rises every April by whichever is highest: earnings growth, inflation (CPI), or 2.5%.
With inflation currently tracking at 2.9%, the 3.9% earnings figure is expected to dictate the 2027/28 increase. This would see the full New State Pension rise from its current level of £241.30 per week (£12,547.60 per year) to approximately £250.70 per week, or roughly £13,036 annually.
The tax threshold challenge
While the projected increase will be welcomed by millions of retirees, the rise brings a new fiscal complication. The Personal Allowance—the amount of income an individual can receive before paying income tax—is currently frozen at £12,570.
If the full New State Pension reaches £13,036 as projected, it will exceed this tax-free limit by £466. This means that pensioners who receive the full amount, even those with no other sources of income such as private pensions or savings interest, may technically become liable for income tax for the first time.
Under current HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) processes, tax is usually collected through PAYE on other income or via Self Assessment. For those whose only income is the State Pension, the government has previously used the “simple assessment” system to notify individuals of tax owed.
How to check your own forecast
Not everyone is eligible for the full New State Pension amount. To receive the maximum payment, an individual typically needs 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions. A minimum of 10 years is usually required to receive any amount at all.
The government provides a “Check your State Pension” service on GOV.UK which allows individuals to see:
- How much State Pension they could get.
- When they can start claiming it.
- How to increase the amount, if possible, by paying voluntary contributions.
To use the service, you will need a Government Gateway ID and your National Insurance number. It is also possible to check for gaps in your National Insurance record. Currently, individuals can pay voluntary contributions to fill gaps in their record going back six tax years, though transitional rules sometimes allow for a longer look-back period for those reaching pension age soon.
The final decision on the pension increase for April 2027 will be confirmed by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions later this year, following the publication of the relevant inflation data in October. However, the 3.9% earnings figure is now widely viewed as the benchmark for the upcoming adjustment.
